ACX
Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds
Scott Alexander summarizes a debate between Yudkowsky and Christiano on whether AI progress will be gradual or sudden, exploring their key arguments and implications.
55 min read 8,479 words
A thread through the archive
forecasting
Essays tagged “forecasting”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on forecasting
89 essaysACX
Mantic Monday 3/21/22
Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments.
15 min read 2,282 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 3/14/22
Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms.
16 min read 2,456 words
ACX
Ukraine Warcasting
Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits.
53 min read 8,064 words
ACX
Play Money And Reputation Systems
Scott analyzes play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, discussing their designs, challenges, and potential improvements.
17 min read 2,522 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives.
14 min read 2,169 words
ACX
The Passage Of Polymarket
Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency.
19 min read 2,918 words
ACX
Predictions For 2022
Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers.
15 min read 2,236 words
ACX
Grading My 2021 Predictions
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets.
11 min read 1,559 words
ACX
ACX Grants Results
Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants program, awarding funding to various projects and individuals across different fields.
44 min read 6,732 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
Scott discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including new platforms, features, and current market predictions on various topics.
17 min read 2,603 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields.
17 min read 2,525 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 11/15
Scott examines new techniques in forecasting and prediction markets, including reciprocal scoring and iterated markets, while highlighting the accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional media.
20 min read 2,992 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 11/1/21
Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation.
23 min read 3,428 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On Acemoglu And AI
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his AI risk post, discussing AI self-awareness, narrow vs. general AI, catastrophe probabilities, and research priorities.
37 min read 5,613 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 7/26
Scott reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including COVID-19 forecasts, the launch of Kalshi, and Metaculus' new hiring initiative.
14 min read 2,168 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 6/21/21
Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts.
10 min read 1,447 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021
Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction.
8 min read 1,148 words
ACX
2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process.
13 min read 1,892 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
Scott Alexander examines Matt Yglesias's public predictions and discusses the implications for evaluating pundits and the future of prediction-based journalism.
16 min read 2,379 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations.
12 min read 1,745 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting.
15 min read 2,184 words
ACX
Metaculus Monday 2/8/21
Scott Alexander examines prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus forecasts for AI development and its potential impacts.
15 min read 2,201 words
ACX
Metaculus Monday
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19.
13 min read 1,914 words
SSC
2019 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander reviews and analyzes his 2019 predictions, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels.
12 min read 1,769 words