A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “prediction accuracy”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress.
Scott Alexander grades his 2018 predictions for 2023 and makes new predictions for 2028, with a strong focus on AI developments.
Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures.
Scott Alexander explores the possibility of a 'General Factor of Correctness' and its implications for rationality and decision-making across various fields.