ACX
Mantic Monday 10/30/23
Scott Alexander reports on the Manifest prediction market conference, new developments in the field, and recent market activity on current events.
21 min read 3,113 words
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2,008 essaysACX
Mantic Monday 8/15/22
Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field.
24 min read 3,692 words
ACX
2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process.
13 min read 1,892 words
ACX
ACX Local Voting Guides
Scott Alexander shares and comments on local voting guides created by ACX meetup groups for various US cities, highlighting interesting aspects of each guide.
11 min read 1,562 words
ACX
Ballots Everywhere: Times & Places
Scott organizes local meetups across several US cities where rationalist community members will collectively research ballot measures and candidates to create voting guides.
4 min read 501 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On "How Asia Works"
Scott Alexander shares and discusses reader comments on his review of 'How Asia Works', covering various critiques and alternative explanations for Asian economic development.
34 min read 5,136 words
LW
Connectionism: Modeling the mind with neural networks
Scott explains connectionism as a neural network-based theory of mind that evolved from spreading activation models, showing how it resolves philosophical problems and mirrors brain function better than classical computing approaches.
15 min read 2,251 words
ACX
ACX Classifieds 9/2024
Scott Alexander announces an irregular classifieds thread for ACX readers to post advertisements in various categories, with guidelines and related resources.
1 min read 116 words
ACX
ACX/Metaculus Prediction Contest 2026
The 2026 ACX/Metaculus prediction contest is now open with a $10,000 prize pool, featuring reader-submitted questions, and Scott announces the winners of the best question submission contest.
2 min read 219 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise
Scott Alexander presents highlights from reader comments on his 'Bobos in Paradise' book review, covering critiques of the book's thesis, discussions on elite education, and debates on social class dynamics.
40 min read 6,150 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day
Scott Alexander addresses reader comments on his Columbus Day post, covering historical and cultural controversies around holidays and Columbus.
43 min read 6,554 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley
Scott Alexander shares and responds to reader comments on his article about California's Central Valley, offering diverse perspectives on life and challenges in the region.
42 min read 6,409 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 4/24/23
The post explores AI forecasting capabilities, compares prediction market performances, and provides updates on various ongoing predictions in technology and politics.
13 min read 1,989 words
LW
Basics of Human Reinforcement
Scott explains how reinforcement learning concepts like secondary reinforcers, generalization, and social learning apply to human behavior, while acknowledging these mechanisms don't fully explain complex decisions like quitting smoking on medical advice.
13 min read 1,986 words
LW
What I Tell You Three Times Is True
Scott argues that affirmations (repeatedly stating goals aloud) might actually work based on evidence that subconscious beliefs affect success and that verbal repetition influences subconscious beliefs, though he acknowledges this needs proper scientific study.
9 min read 1,379 words
ACX
Carbon Costs Quantified
Scott Alexander presents a chart quantifying carbon emissions from various sources, discussing the implications and providing advice on addressing climate change responsibly.
19 min read 2,888 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On Long COVID And Bisexuality
Scott Alexander addresses feedback on his post about bisexuality and Long COVID, discussing alternative explanations and defending his methodology.
46 min read 7,069 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On "Sadly, Porn"
Scott Alexander presents and discusses diverse reader reactions to his review of 'Sadly, Porn', touching on the book's controversial ideas and writing style.
56 min read 8,675 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 10/17/22
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.
25 min read 3,862 words
ACX
Vote In The 2023 Book Review Contest
Scott Alexander opens voting for the 2023 Book Review Contest, detailing the ranked choice voting process and listing the finalists.
3 min read 338 words
ACX
Vote In The 2025 Non-Book Review Contest
Scott opens voting for the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest finalists, listing all thirteen entries and providing a link to the ranked-choice voting form.
2 min read 234 words
LW
Book Review: The Root of Thought
Scott reviews a book arguing that glial cells are crucial for cognition (not just neuron support), and uses this century-long scientific oversight as a cautionary tale about how entire communities can miss important phenomena.
11 min read 1,605 words
ACX
ACX Classifieds 1/26
Scott opens a classifieds thread for readers to advertise employment, dating, blogs, products, meetups and other services in organized categories with guidelines for respectful posting.
1 min read 117 words
ACX
Impact Markets: The Annoying Details
Scott Alexander discusses the technical implementation details of impact markets for charity funding, exploring various options and challenges.
56 min read 8,585 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 1/30/2023
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics.
31 min read 4,760 words