ACX
ACX Grants Followup Impact Market
Scott Alexander introduces an impact market for unfunded ACX Grants proposals, allowing investors to crowdfund projects with potential returns in Manifund dollars.
13 min read 1,970 words
The reader’s shortlist
Worth a second thought.
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Most liked essays
2,008 essaysACX
Mantic Monday 3/21/22
Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments.
15 min read 2,282 words
LW
2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Call For Critiques/Questions
Scott is preparing the 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey and asks for feedback on the draft survey and suggestions for additional questions to include.
2 min read 286 words
LW
AndrewH's observation and opportunity costs
Scott argues that opportunity costs should be calculated based on what you'll realistically do with resources, not on theoretical optimal alternatives, using examples from cryonics spending, NASA budgets, and charitable giving.
4 min read 513 words
LW
Fight Biases, or Route Around Them?
Scott distinguishes between bias as a cognitive process versus bias as a faulty belief, then proposes using the Implicit Association Test to empirically test whether debiasing techniques work by either fighting bias directly or routing around it.
10 min read 1,518 words
LW
More thoughts on assertions
Scott analyzes when assertions should be trusted, showing that their evidentiary value depends on whether you already know the belief's distribution, the asserter's credentials, and how you encountered them, while claims of having 'evidence' mostly serve as signals of rationality rather than factual proof.
13 min read 1,958 words
LW
LW
Bayesian Cabaret
Scott discovers and shares links to the Bayesian Cabaret, a real biennial event where statisticians perform songs and skits about Bayesian probability theory.
2 min read 173 words
ACX
ACX Grants ++: The Second Half
Scott Alexander shares the second half of ACX Grants, presenting 59 diverse project proposals seeking funding or support.
80 min read 12,376 words
ACX
Reader Survey Final Check-In
Scott Alexander is finalizing preparations for a Reader Survey, asking participants to confirm their inclusion and make necessary adjustments before the Friday start date.
3 min read 321 words
LW
Reversed stupidity sometimes provides useful information
Scott argues against Eliezer's position that reversed stupidity is never intelligence, showing that observing many people believe something for bad reasons can help identify 'popular claims' that people assert regardless of truth, which lets you properly discount future assertions of those claims.
6 min read 864 words
ACX
Comments / Register Of Bans
Scott Alexander explains ACX's comment policy, requiring comments to be at least two of true, necessary, and kind, and lists recent bans.
5 min read 721 words
LW
It's not like anything to be a bat
Scott presents an anthropic argument suggesting animals might lack subjective experience, based on the observation that if animals were conscious, we would statistically be much more likely to be animals than humans.
5 min read 682 words
LW
Cleaning up the "Worst Argument" essay
Scott Alexander introduces 'Guilt by Association' as a fallacy where people judge things negatively based on category membership rather than actual shared features, using examples like calling MLK a 'criminal' or abortion 'murder' to illustrate when this reasoning fails.
11 min read 1,683 words
LW
Are mass hallucinations a real thing?
Scott questions whether mass hallucinations are real, distinguishing between mass hysteria (false beliefs) and actual shared vivid hallucinations, and asks for evidence of the latter.
2 min read 273 words
LW
Return of the Survey
Scott announces the official survey is ready with a link, noting it uses percentage format for probabilities and will be open for about a week before results are calculated.
2 min read 270 words
ACX
Two Small Corrections And Updates
Scott offers corrections about Polymarket's status and updates on the 2022 prediction contest, including calls for collaboration and ideas.
2 min read 231 words
LW
Excuse me, would you like to take a survey?
Scott proposes a LessWrong community survey to gather demographics and opinions, shares a draft, and asks readers to suggest additional questions and weigh in on privacy concerns about releasing raw data.
3 min read 336 words
LW
Write about risk and decision-making, win money
Scott announces an essay competition on 'risk' with a 200 euro first prize, noting the organizer's interest in probability calibration and cognitive biases.
1 min read 59 words
LW
Scope insensitivity in juries
Scott highlights a study showing juries give harsher penalties for crimes affecting few people versus many, demonstrating the cognitive bias of scope insensitivity.
1 min read 32 words
LW
Looking for information on scoring calibration
Scott asks whether there's an accepted method for measuring calibration separately from domain knowledge, noting that common scoring rules conflate the two.
2 min read 221 words
LW
Michael Vassar in Europe
Michael Vassar is visiting European cities in April-May 2013 and wants to meet with Less Wrong community members.
1 min read 118 words
LW
Framing Effects in Anthropology
Scott presents Horace Miner's satirical essay describing American culture as an exotic tribe called the 'Nacirema,' demonstrating how framing effects and cultural expectations shape anthropological interpretation.
16 min read 2,422 words
LW
V is for Value Maximizing Agent: London, November 5
Scott announces a London rationality meetup on November 5th (Guy Fawkes Day) at Waterstone's in Piccadilly Circus, humorously noting he's again scheduling it on a holiday despite promising otherwise.
1 min read 118 words
LW
Re: sub-reddits
Scott updates the community on subreddit investigation, explaining that Tricycle proposes using Discussion tags instead, though he's not entirely convinced.
2 min read 163 words