A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “prediction markets”. Follow an idea across the archive.
The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting.
The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics.
Scott Alexander reports on the Manifest prediction market conference, new developments in the field, and recent market activity on current events.
Scott Alexander opens voting for the 2023 Book Review Contest, detailing the ranked choice voting process and listing the finalists.
Scott Alexander analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, including the LK-99 superconductor hype, a forecasting tournament, and new prediction market concepts.
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics.
Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet.
The post explores AI forecasting capabilities, compares prediction market performances, and provides updates on various ongoing predictions in technology and politics.
Scott Alexander announces a $20,000 grants round for forecasting projects using impact certificates, explaining the process for creators and investors.
Scott explores various technological and market-based approaches to dating and relationships, including prediction markets, matching sites, and cryptocurrency concepts.
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics.
Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy.
Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 of the 2023 Prediction Contest, encouraging participants to use any resources to make accurate predictions.
Scott Alexander uses a satirical FAQ about stores to illustrate common objections to new institutions, then explains the purpose and offers heuristics for evaluating such criticisms.
Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his post about semaglutide, covering corrections, additional information, and user experiences with the weight loss drug.
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'.
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.
Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field.
The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events.
Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics.
Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics.
Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events.
Scott Alexander explores different types of prediction markets, their uses, limitations, and ethical considerations in decision-making and information gathering.
Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments.