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Mantic Monday 3/14/22
Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms.
16 min read 2,456 words
A thread through the archive
prediction markets
Essays tagged “prediction markets”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on prediction markets
87 essaysACX
What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?
Scott Alexander examines various interpretations of rationality, concluding it might be best understood as 'the study of study' - a meta-level examination of truth-seeking methods.
23 min read 3,496 words
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Ukraine Warcasting
Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits.
53 min read 8,064 words
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Play Money And Reputation Systems
Scott analyzes play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, discussing their designs, challenges, and potential improvements.
17 min read 2,522 words
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Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives.
14 min read 2,169 words
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Two Small Corrections And Updates
Scott offers corrections about Polymarket's status and updates on the 2022 prediction contest, including calls for collaboration and ideas.
2 min read 231 words
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The Passage Of Polymarket
Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency.
19 min read 2,918 words
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Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
Scott discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including new platforms, features, and current market predictions on various topics.
17 min read 2,603 words
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Addendum To Luvox Post
Scott provides updates on efforts to get FDA approval for fluvoxamine as a COVID-19 treatment and reports on the early approval of Paxlovid.
3 min read 396 words
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Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields.
17 min read 2,525 words
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MM: Omicron Variant
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction market forecasts about the Omicron COVID-19 variant, discussing its potential transmissibility, lethality, and prevalence.
4 min read 554 words
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When Will The FDA Approve Paxlovid?
Scott Alexander critiques the FDA's slow approval process for Paxlovid, a promising COVID-19 treatment, despite its proven effectiveness.
9 min read 1,382 words
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Mantic Monday 11/15
Scott examines new techniques in forecasting and prediction markets, including reciprocal scoring and iterated markets, while highlighting the accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional media.
20 min read 2,992 words
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Mantic Monday 11/1/21
Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation.
23 min read 3,428 words
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Mantic Monday 7/26
Scott reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including COVID-19 forecasts, the launch of Kalshi, and Metaculus' new hiring initiative.
14 min read 2,168 words
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Use Prediction Markets To Fund Investigative Reporting
Scott proposes using prediction markets to fund investigative journalism, potentially solving the issue of funding quality reporting in the digital age.
8 min read 1,228 words
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Mantic Monday 6/21/21
Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts.
10 min read 1,447 words
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Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets
Scott proposes politicians pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts instead of making direct outcome pledges, using Biden's emissions pledge as an example.
6 min read 877 words
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Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions
Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures.
63 min read 9,658 words
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Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
Scott Alexander examines Matt Yglesias's public predictions and discusses the implications for evaluating pundits and the future of prediction-based journalism.
16 min read 2,379 words
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Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations.
12 min read 1,745 words
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Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting.
15 min read 2,184 words
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Metaculus Monday 2/8/21
Scott Alexander examines prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus forecasts for AI development and its potential impacts.
15 min read 2,201 words
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Metaculus Monday
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19.
13 min read 1,914 words
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Slightly Skew Systems Of Government
Scott Alexander describes three fictional and slightly absurd systems of government: an acausal democracy, a constitutional mobocracy, and a meta-republic with representatives from various governing philosophies.
9 min read 1,369 words