ACX
Contra DeBoer On Temporal Copernicanism
Scott Alexander refutes Freddie deBoer's argument against expecting major events in our lifetimes, presenting a more nuanced approach to estimating such probabilities.
16 min read 2,425 words
A thread through the archive
probability
Essays tagged “probability”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on probability
16 essaysACX
In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities
Scott Alexander defends using probabilities for hard-to-model events, arguing they aid clear communication and decision-making even in uncertain domains.
23 min read 3,438 words
ACX
Who Predicted 2022?
Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy.
24 min read 3,720 words
ACX
Pascalian Medicine
Scott Alexander examines the concept of 'Pascalian Medicine', weighing the pros and cons of taking multiple unproven but potentially beneficial treatments.
17 min read 2,505 words
SSC
Book Review: The Black Swan
Scott reviews 'The Black Swan' by Nassim Taleb, examining its key concepts and Taleb's unique perspective on probability and risk.
37 min read 5,615 words
SSC
SSC Journal Club: Dissolving The Fermi Paradox
Scott Alexander reviews a paper that claims to solve the Fermi Paradox by using probability distributions instead of point estimates in Drake Equation calculations.
7 min read 1,026 words
SSC
Probabilities Without Models
Scott Alexander argues for the use of probabilities in decision-making even without well-defined models, using examples to show why this approach is necessary and beneficial in real-world situations.
11 min read 1,566 words
SSC
On Overconfidence
Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions.
30 min read 4,625 words
SSC
Stop Adding Zeroes
Scott Alexander critiques Dylan Matthews' argument against prioritizing existential risk reduction, arguing that Matthews misuses probabilities and that his logic could also undermine other effective altruist causes.
17 min read 2,492 words
LW
2011 Survey Results
Scott Alexander presents comprehensive results from the 2011 Less Wrong survey of 1090 respondents, covering demographics, beliefs, probability estimates on various topics, and a calibration test that shows the community performs better than average but has some calibration issues.
16 min read 2,383 words
LW
Prospect Theory: A Framework for Understanding Cognitive Biases
Scott explains prospect theory, Kahneman and Tversky's model of how people actually make decisions, showing how its value and probability weighting functions predict numerous cognitive biases including loss aversion, scope insensitivity, and framing effects.
8 min read 1,202 words
LW
Looking for information on scoring calibration
Scott asks whether there's an accepted method for measuring calibration separately from domain knowledge, noting that common scoring rules conflate the two.
2 min read 221 words
LW
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott describes six techniques for translating vague probability feelings into accurate numerical estimates, explaining the strengths and weaknesses of each method.
13 min read 1,936 words
LW
Confidence levels inside and outside an argument
Scott distinguishes between an argument's internal confidence level and our external confidence in that argument, showing that extremely high probability claims should be moderated by the baseline probability that the argument itself is flawed.
13 min read 1,981 words
LW
Survey Results
Scott analyzes results from a 166-person Less Wrong survey covering demographics, probability estimates on various topics, and philosophical positions, finding a highly educated, mostly male, atheist, politically libertarian/liberal community with surprisingly accurate collective knowledge but notable gaps between stated beliefs and actions.
15 min read 2,255 words
LW
Return of the Survey
Scott announces the official survey is ready with a link, noting it uses percentage format for probabilities and will be open for about a week before results are calculated.
2 min read 270 words